Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 2.346101 2.736694 3.169759 3.685200 4.281697 4.950034 5.755477
2026-01-04 1.741231 2.264145 2.906518 3.752255 4.835143 6.173960 7.953927
2026-01-11 1.364922 1.940818 2.710339 3.810493 5.339671 7.386607 10.331581
2026-01-18 1.100149 1.687659 2.530586 3.822365 5.745932 8.497432 12.724885
2026-01-25 0.903062 1.480555 2.362244 3.797695 6.066802 9.504066 15.092647
2026-02-01 0.714627 1.244760 2.101161 3.573997 6.031224 9.950434 16.654553
2026-02-08 0.589354 1.084815 1.927377 3.450282 6.118011 10.575390 18.556339
2026-02-15 0.506111 0.980152 1.825227 3.423887 6.351926 11.455866 20.981916
2026-02-22 0.460482 0.934427 1.816690 3.556788 6.876194 12.889787 24.545218
2026-03-01 0.401785 0.852878 1.728306 3.525504 7.090079 13.790238 27.252368
2026-03-08 0.349309 0.774162 1.632135 3.462113 7.228820 14.560976 29.804219
2026-03-15 0.311112 0.718275 1.572077 3.460091 7.484458 15.580134 32.958510
2026-03-22 0.299945 0.720982 1.637218 3.736455 8.367034 17.986913 39.293643
2026-03-29 0.272173 0.681766 1.607474 3.806495 8.829187 19.610123 44.257737
2026-04-05 0.247047 0.644175 1.575335 3.866274 9.278432 21.267750 49.529352
2026-04-12 0.222076 0.602247 1.526231 3.878564 9.621076 22.737805 54.587195
2026-04-19 0.198242 0.558648 1.465834 3.853626 9.871639 24.032339 59.418780
2026-04-26 0.167322 0.490323 1.332852 3.626754 9.598065 24.077655 61.326225
2026-05-03 0.145588 0.442891 1.245229 3.501273 9.557412 24.667841 64.623417
2026-05-10 0.130889 0.412607 1.197872 3.474501 9.766489 25.894720 69.663859
2026-05-17 0.124056 0.404233 1.209004 3.609311 10.424335 28.334235 78.117651
2026-05-24 0.111942 0.377368 1.163580 3.577579 10.622751 29.614138 83.708289
2026-05-31 0.100180 0.349276 1.109910 3.513278 10.720382 30.640521 88.758414